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Python script which simulates hypothetical parlay bets and generates a probability distribution
Python script which simulates hypothetical parlay bets and generates a pnl/probability distribution for the sportsbook
Background
* This script was written to solve a practice problem I was presented with.
* Assume that a sportsbook is taking Parlay bets from customers and a Parlay submission consists of 2 or more choices.
* There are 5 questions the customer can answer either Yes or No to, or choose not to answer.
The Hypothetical Probability of each question/answer occurring is below:
1Yes = 50% 1No = 50%
2Yes = 20% 2No = 80%
3Yes = 30% 3No = 70%
4Yes = 10% 4No = 90%
5Yes = 50% 5No = 50%
Challenge: Build a probability distribution for the sportsbook, with PNL on the x-axis and Probability on the y-axis
1) This script creates a list of all possible parlay submissions and the associated probability of occurring.
2) It then allows you to randomly choose x amount of submissions from the list
3) Based on the submissions chosen and the bet size per parlay, the script will generate a probability distribution for the sportsbook
4) The x-axis is PNL and the y-axis is probability of occurrence
Note that if a customer wins a Parlay, they are paid out PROFIT as follows:
(1/(Probability parlay wins))*(bet size) - bet size
