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VirBet, latin for bet, is a software tool used to scan Romanian bookies in order to find arbitrage betting opportunities.
Arbitrage betting
Arbitrage betting is a form of betting that guarantees profit to the player no matter the outcome of a match.
This can happen due to bookies miss-aligning their odds creating an opportunity for the player to bet on different bookies on the same game (on different outcomes) and coming out ahead no matter what the result is.
For this tool I'm using only both 2-way and 3-way arbitrage betting
How it works
Let's take an example game (a classic h2h in the tennis world): Roger Federer VS Rafael Nadal
We are playing at Wimbledon so Federer is favoured to win normally. But the odds are pretty close. Nadal has been on a pretty good form lately. So we have the following scenario:
On Mozzart we have the following odds: Federer to win at 1.90 and Nadal to win at 2.10
On Betano we have the following odds: Federer to win at 2.05 and Nadal to win at 1.95
Now, if we bet $100 on Nadal on Mozzart and $100 on Federer on Betano we will always come out on top. If Nadal wins we get back 100 x 2.10 = $210. If Federer wins we get back 100 x 2.05 = $205.
So we bet 200$ but are guaranteed to win $205 or $2010. Now this is pretty easy to spot by the eye, but things get complicated on other scenarios.
Math Formula 2-way
The formula to determine if we have an arbitrage possibility is the following.
(TOTAL_SUM / odd1) + (TOTAL_SUM / odd 2) = OUTLAY
If OUTLAY < TOTAL_SUM --> Arbitrage possibility
Let's take another example. Federer plays Antoine Escoffier who is ranked 190 on ATP. Federer is heavily favoured to win.
On Betano Federer has 1.20 odds that he will win.
On Mozzart Antoine has 8.00 odds that he will win.
This is not easy to spot, but we have an arbitrage possibility. Let's assume we want to bet 1000$ in total.
In this example:
($1000 ÷ 1.20) + ($1000 ÷ 8.00) = your total outlay
Calculated as:
$833.33 + $125.00 = $958.33
You now know exactly how much you are outlaying ($958.33) and how much to bet at each bookie ($833.33 at Betano, and $125.00 at Mozzart).
Calculating your profit is just as easy:
Winnings - Outlay = your total Profit
$1000 - $958.33 = $41.67
And finally, to calculate your return on investment you simply divide your profit by the initial amount invested:
$41.67 ÷ $958.33 = 4.35%
Math formula 3-way
As with two-outcome betting, you can obtain a betting agency’s margin on their odds by summing the inverses of the odds. So if an agency offers the following odds for a soccer match:
Everton 1.80
Draw 3.35
Tottenham 4.40
The sum of the inverses of the odds is 1/1.80 + 1/3.35 + 1/4.40 = 1.081. The larger this figure, the greater the margin that the bookmaker is taking. Because the sum is greater than 1, if you placed equitable bets (i.e. providing the same profit) on all three outcomes, you would be guaranteed a loss due to this margin.
If you can find differing sets of odds for the same event, you may be able to come up with a combination of win, draw and loss bets that guarantees a profit, regardless of the event outcome. The different betting odds could be provided by different bookmakers, as in the example below, or it may be due to odds changing over time as the game or series progresses. Arbitrage opportunities will be discussed in more detail in upcoming posts.
Suppose two agencies offered the following odds:
Agency 1 Agency 2
Everton 1.80 2.30
Draw 3.35 3.25
Tottenham 4.40 2.95
If you sum the inverses of agency 2’s odds for an Everton win along with agency 1’s odds for a draw and an Everton loss, you get 1/2.30 + 1/3.35 + 1/4.40 = 0.961. This figure is below 1, so an arbitrage does opportunity exist. Note that a number of cross-combinations can be tested. To find the best combination, take the largest odds for each possible outcome.
To calculate the amount to bet on each outcome, determine the total amount you would like to bet. Then calculate the amounts to bet on each particular outcome as follows:
Definitions:
b1 = bet (in dollars) on outcome 1 (Everton win).
b2 = bet (in dollars) on outcome 2 (draw)
b3 = bet (in dollars) on outcome 3 (Everton loss)
B = b1 + b2 + b3 = combined bet amount
o1 = odds for outcome 1 (Everton win).
o2 = odds for outcome 2 (draw)
o3 = odds for outcome 3 (Everton loss)
In this example I will bet $1,000 in total. Calculate the bets for each outcome as follows:
b1 = B / (1 + o1/o2 + o1/o3)
b2 = B / (1 + o2/o1 + o2/o3)
b3 = B / (1 + o3/o1 + o3/o2)
b1 = $1000 / (1 + 2.30/3.35 + 2.30/4.40) = $452.63
b2 = $1000 / (1 + 3.35/2.30 + 3.35/4.40) = $310.76
b3= $1000 / (1 + 4.40/2.30 + 4.40/3.35) = $236.60
Each bet equals the total bet amount divided by 1 plus the sum of the ratios of that outcome’s odds to the other outcomes’ odds
Calculate the guaranteed profit as b1o1 – B (or as b2o2 – B, etc)
$452.63 x 2.30 – $1000 = $41.06
$310.76 x 3.35 – $1000 = $41.06
$236.60 x 4.40 – $1000 = $41.06
Betting $452.63 on an Everton win, $310.76 on a draw, and $236.60 on an Everton loss would guarantee a profit of $41.06, which is a 4.1% return on the total bets.
